Winter Flight Disruption Index 2026

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For many travellers, winter airport delays can feel unavoidable – especially around the festive period and peak ski season from January to April. To help travellers plan smarter ski travel, we analysed official flight data from the past three winters (Nov-Apr, 2022/23-2024/25), using regulator-grade flight data from the Civil Aviation Authority and ACI Europe to reveal consistent patterns in airport disruption.

The index consists of data from major UK airports, top European hubs, and Alpine gateways to assess core metrics, including Disruption (% of flights 15+ mins late or cancelled), Average Delay (mins) and OTP15 (% of flights on time within 15 mins).

For each airport ranked, we collated the monthly flight data across November to April and averaged these across the last three winters.

The index revealed the airports that consistently saw disrupted flights measures to put in place to avoid unwanted stress.

Most Disrupted Major UK Airports

Rank Airport % of flights 15m late or cancelled
1=Manchester (MAN)29.2%
1=Heathrow (LHR)29.2%
3Stansted (STN)28.4%
4Gatwick (LGW)27.4%
5Edinburgh (EDI)26.6%
6Luton (LTN)26.3%
7Birmingham (BHX)26.2%
8Bristol (BRS)25.6%
9Newcastle (NCL)25.2%
10Glasgow (GLA)23.1%
Manchester (29.2%) and Heathrow (29.2%) share the top spot for the UK’s most disrupted airports, with nearly three in ten winter flights cancelled or delayed. That doesn’t mean you’ll always be late, but it does mean you should build more buffer time if you’re routing through either airport in peak season.

By contrast, Glasgow stands as the UK’s reliability hero. With over three-quarters of flights on time (76.9%), it’s a steadier bet for Scottish travellers and anyone connecting north of the border.

Most Disrupted Major UK Airports (December)

Rank Airport % of flights 15m late or cancelled
1Stansted (STN)42%
2Heathrow (LHR)41.2%
3Gatwick (LGW)41.1%
4Manchester (MAN)40.6%
5Edinburgh (EDI)39.8%
6Luton (LTN)37.3%
7Bristol (BRS)35.2%
8Birmingham (BHX)34.8%
9Glasgow (GLA)34.5%
10Newcastle (NCL)33.6%
December is the crunch month for winter holidays. Demand spikes around school holidays and the festive period, while winter weather (snow, ice, high winds) and de-icing slow down operations. Combine that with shorter daylight, packed schedules, and tight runway capacity, and delays can cascade quickly.

That’s why London’s “big three” dominate the December disruption table, with Stansted, Heathrow, and Gatwick all exceeding 41% disruption. These airports handle very high volumes of short-haul and long-haul flights, so even minor hold-ups ripple across the day.

Manchester and Edinburgh follow closely behind, with around two in five (40%) of flights delayed or cancelled.

On the other hand, Newcastle is the best performer, with two in three flights running on time (66.4%). Glasgow and Birmingham also outperform the London hubs in December, offering more reliable alternatives if you can switch departure airport.

Major UK Airports - Longest Average Delays
Rank Airport Avg delay (mins)
1=Manchester (MAN)17.1
2Gatwick (LGW)15.9
3Heathrow (LHR)15.8
4Luton (LTN)15.7
5Stansted (STN)15.4
6=Birmingham (BHX)14.9
6=Bristol (BRS)14.9
8Edinburgh (EDI)14.7
9Newcastle (NCL)14.2
10Glasgow (GLA)12.7

Most Disrupted Ski Gateways

Rank Airport % of flights 15m late or cancelled
1Zurich (ZRH)26.4%
2=Lyon (LYS)26%
2=Geneva (GVA)26%
4Milan Malpensa (MXP)25.8%
5Turin (TRN)21.9%
6=Munich (MUC)21%
7Milan Linate (LIN)16.5%
For those heading on ski holidays, Zurich (26.4%), Lyon (26%), and Geneva (26%) cluster at the top the most disrupted rankings, all of which have over one in four disrupted flights.

Milan Linate, on the other hand, is the Alpine reliability pick, with 83.5% of flights on time, offering exceptional reliability for Italian ski trips and where routes allow.

With four in five (79%) of flights on time, Munich provides a strong balance for skiers, with major-hub reliability and access to fantastic ski resorts.

Major Ski Gateways – Longest Average Delays
Rank Airport Average delays (mins)
1Milan Malpensa (MXP)13.9
2Lyon (LYS)13.1
3Geneva (GVA)12
4Turin (TRN)10.9
5Zurich (ZRH)10.7
6=Munich (MUC)9.4
7Milan Linate (LIN)7.9
Milan Malpensa tops the Alpine delay table at nearly 14 minutes per flight – enough to throw off tight ski transfers if you’re heading to the Alps. Lyon and Geneva aren’t far behind, both averaging over 12 minutes. Interestingly, Milan Linate is the clear winner for reliability, with delays almost 40% shorter than Malpensa. If your route allows, it would appear that Linate is a better choice than Malpensa.

Most Disrupted Major European Airports

Rank Airport % of flights 15m late or cancelled
1Lisbon (LIS)39.1%
2Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG)29.8%
3Frankfurt (FRA)29.6%
4Amsterdam Schiphol (AMS)26.7%
5Madrid-Barajas (MAD)21.7%
6Barcelona El Prat (BCN)21.4%
7Rome Fiumicino (FCO)21.2%
8Munich (MUC)21%
9Athens (ATH)19.1%
10Palma De Mallorca (PMI)17.1%
Lisbon emerged as Europe’s winter headache, with nearly four in ten (39%) flights disrupted, making it the riskiest major hub for winter travel. Add to that the longest average delays (18+ minutes) and you’ve got a recipe for missed connections.

Paris and Frankfurt also rank poorly for reliability, with disruption close to 30%.

By contrast, southern European cities like Madrid, Barcelona, and Rome show far better resilience, with disruption around 45% lower than Lisbon.

When is the best time to travel over winter?

For those planning a winter break, timing matters. Our data revealed a consistent spike in disruption during December, driven by Christmas and New Year travel, school holidays, and unpredictable winter weather. It’s the busiest month for airports and the hardest to avoid delays.

For ski holidays, February to March are your sweet spot. These months are consistently calmer, with fewer flight disruptions, yet still deliver reliable ski conditions across the Alps.

Our tips for travelling this winter

Millions of Brits travel abroad over the winter months so delays, especially in December, should be expected. Our research shows this pattern repeats year after year, with delays spiking before Christmas and New Year.

To help travellers plan smarter, Jane Bolton, travel expert at Erna Low, shares her top tips for a stress-free winter journey:

  1. Plan early and leave extra time

  2. Map out your journey in advance and allow more time than you think you need. Even great transport links and parking can get backed up during peak travel times, especially if you haven’t pre-booked.

    If you know it’s a busy time, build in at least 60-90 minutes extra buffer time for airport transfers, bag drop, and security queues.

  3. Use twilight baggage drop off

  4. If you’re checking bags, consider dropping them the night before if your airline allows it. Many major airports offer evening bag drop for early flights, and it can save 30-45 minutes on departure day and reduce stress for families or large groups.

  5. Consider fast track security pass

  6. Fast-track lanes cost a small fee but can dramatically cut queuing time and stress for families or nervous travellers. Make sure to book online in advance however, as they can often sell out before Christmas.

  7. Choose earlier flights (and avoid the pre-Christmas Friday)

  8. Fly before 7am to reduce the risk of delays. Early departures are least likely to be disrupted as the accumulation of flights hasn’t begun. Avoid flying between the 2pm-9pm window when delays stack up, and steer clear of the Friday before Christmas, which is typically the busiest travel day of the year.

  9. Know your rights if delays happen

  10. If your flight is delayed by 3+ hours or cancelled within 14 days of departure, you may be entitled to compensation under UK261, unless the cause is ‘extraordinary’ (like severe weather). The compensation will differ depending on the length of your flight and you have up to six years to make a claim. For short hauls payouts are usually around £220 whereas for long-haul they can be up to £520.

    Airlines have a duty of care if your flight has been delayed which includes food, drinks and overnight accommodation if your delay carries over to the following day. Keep receipts for any food, drinks or accommodation purchased during the time of a delay and always check your airline’s claims page and the CAA guidance before travelling.”

  11. Consider a package holiday

  12. For maximum peace of mind, choose an ATOL-protected package so flights, transfers, and accommodation are coordinated. If disruption hits, you’re less likely to face extra costs or logistics challenges on your own – ideal in the peak winter period when plans can change at short notice.

Our Summary

Travellers can reduce the chaos that comes with the winter travel season by choosing dates and departure times wisely and planning ahead.

Whether booking a winter break or a last minute ski holiday, going through a tailor-made package holiday provider can lead to smoother journeys, fewer missed connections and an enjoyable start to your holiday.